Dallas Weather Observation Field

Average error (lower is better) on the newest 20% of the data, which the model never trained on. ★ = most accurate.

Big weather models forecast for grid boxes miles wide, so they miss what makes the KDWO office's spot different. MOS (model output statistics) is the method the National Weather Service uses to fix that.

Every 3 hours KDWO saves forecasts from several models for its location. After 30 days it compares them with what KDWO actually measured, learns how each model tends to be wrong here, and blends them into one corrected forecast: KDWO-MOS.

It retrains every week, so it keeps getting better.

Model data: NOAA/NWS and Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0).